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Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Empoli 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Juve Stabia attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 48%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights