Empoli vs Hellas Verona – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hellas Verona (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Empoli face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Hellas Verona at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hellas Verona — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hellas Verona in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Hellas Verona have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Empoli's 1 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
It is worth noting that Hellas Verona have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Hellas Verona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Hellas Verona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.40 xG and Hellas Verona 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.884 / defence 1.261 | Hellas Verona attack 0.939 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Empoli games / 10 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 34% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 37%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 60% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 34% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Empoli 1.40 / Hellas Verona 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.884 / def 1.261 | Hellas Verona attack 0.939 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Hellas Verona xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Hellas Verona part of?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 34% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Empoli and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Record (8 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 3 | Hellas Verona 4W.
What form are Empoli and Hellas Verona in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.88) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.51
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.86
1.46
Hellas Verona xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Empoli and 1.46 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 16D 21L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona's form line: 7W 15D 26L from 48 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.02 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (5W 12D 6L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 8D 12L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 7W 15D 26L in their last 48 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Hellas Verona away?
Empoli's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.17 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Hellas Verona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
3
Draws
4
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 65%, Hellas Verona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Empoli) and 56% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Empoli's games and 56% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Empoli's recent games and 56% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.