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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.23 xG and Frosinone 1.52 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.12 / defence 1.12 against Frosinone attack 1.26 / defence 0.82, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 43%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 49%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights