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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli and Cesena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli and Cesena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.38 xG and Cesena 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Cesena attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 28% | Cesena 29%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 48%, Cesena 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (64 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Cesena's trading profile (64 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights