Empoli vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Empoli welcome Benevento to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.40 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Benevento in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Benevento trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 40% versus Benevento 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 40% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.99 xG and Benevento 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.791 / defence 0.890 | Benevento attack 0.725 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.185. Empoli's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Empoli games / 5 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 40% | Draw 33% | Benevento 27%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Benevento 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Benevento's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 60% | Benevento 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 40% | Draw 33% | Benevento 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Empoli 0.99 / Benevento 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.791 / def 0.890 | Benevento attack 0.725 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Empoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Benevento xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Benevento kick off?
Empoli vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Benevento part of?
Empoli vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Empoli and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Benevento in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Empoli's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
40%
2.53
33%
3.00
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.76
0.77
Benevento xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 13.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Empoli and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Empoli and 0.77 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.20 PPG, Benevento on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 60%.
Defensively: Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Benevento in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Empoli or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Benevento in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 40%, Benevento 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Empoli) and 40% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Empoli's recent matches and 60% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Empoli's recent games and 40% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.