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Poisson model rates Empoli at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Empoli welcome Benevento to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 2W 6D 2L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.73 xG and Benevento 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.973 / defence 1.010 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Empoli games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Empoli 55% | Draw 26% | Benevento 19%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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