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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Avellino 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Avellino 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.45 xG and Avellino 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Avellino landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Avellino attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 31% | Avellino 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Avellino 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Avellino's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 1.03 PPG, Avellino 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights