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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese and Sassuolo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.81 xG and Sassuolo 1.81 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sassuolo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.27 / defence 1.18 against Sassuolo attack 1.36 / defence 1.09, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 38% | Draw 24% | Sassuolo 38%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Sassuolo 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Sassuolo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.70 PPG, Sassuolo 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights