Cremonese 1-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.80 PPG, Pisa 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cremonese's games and 80% of Pisa's (from Cremonese's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Pisa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2024, ended Cremonese 2–1 Pisa — a Cremonese win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 53% and Pisa 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | Pisa 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cremonese surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Pisa surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Cremonese recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.34 xG and Pisa 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.021 / defence 0.944 | Pisa attack 0.959 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.069. Data: built from Cremonese's last 49 games and Pisa's last 49.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Pisa 24%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.38 | Draw 2.92 | Pisa 4.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cremonese 60% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Pisa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Cremonese 1.34 / Pisa 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.021 / def 0.944 | Pisa attack 0.959 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Cremonese 1 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 42% chance of winning, Pisa a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.02x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 49 games and Pisa's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.92
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.31
0.97
Pisa xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.97 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 24W 13D 12L from 49 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 15L across 49 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.73 PPG, Pisa on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 12W 6D 5L from their last 23 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across their last 23 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.39 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 69%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Pisa
Blended
Cremonese (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Pisa have gone 17W 17D 15L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.83 PPG; Pisa away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pisa in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won Pisa 3-0 Cremonese.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
5
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Pisa 3-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 48%, Pisa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 48% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pisa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Pisa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Cremonese's games and 65% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cremonese and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 48% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Cremonese's recent matches and 70% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cremonese 1-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.34 xG and Pisa 0.97 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Pisa 24%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.73 PPG, Pisa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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