Spezia 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Spezia's favour (2.00 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Modena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Modena — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 51% versus Modena 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 43% | Modena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.58 xG and Modena 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.114 / defence 0.908 | Modena attack 0.967 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.075. Data: 49 Spezia games / 49 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 32% | Modena 19%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Modena 5.26. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 32% | Modena 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Spezia 1.58 / Modena 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.114 / def 0.908 | Modena attack 0.967 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Spezia (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Modena xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Modena kick off?
Spezia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Modena?
Spezia 1 - 0 Modena.
Where is Spezia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Modena part of?
Spezia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 49% chance of winning, Modena a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spezia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 2 | Modena 0W.
What form are Spezia and Modena in?
Spezia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Modena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Spezia vs Modena?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.97x) against Spezia's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.16
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.52
0.94
Modena xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
24.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Spezia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Spezia and 0.94 for Modena, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 23D 12L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.18 PPG from 49 outings (12W 22D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Spezia against 1.18 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Spezia's home form reads 10W 9D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (4W 14D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.16 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Modena in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 14W 23D 12L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Modena have gone 12W 22D 15L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Modena away?
Spezia's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.62 PPG; Modena away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Spezia or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Modena in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 50%, Modena 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Spezia) and 50% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Spezia's games and 71% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Modena tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Modena in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Modena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.58 xG and Modena 0.94 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Modena attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 49% | Draw 32% | Modena 19%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 43%, Modena 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Modena's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.33 PPG, Modena 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.