Cremonese vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Mantova at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.50 PPG versus Mantova's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Mantova and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2026, ended 2–0 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Mantova in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 41% versus Mantova 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Mantova 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.91 xG and Mantova 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.842 / defence 0.975 | Mantova attack 1.079 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 10 Cremonese games / 49 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 24% | Draw 33% | Mantova 42%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Mantova 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 40% | Mantova 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 24% | Draw 33% | Mantova 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 0.91 / Mantova 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.842 / def 0.975 | Mantova attack 1.079 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Mantova xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Mantova kick off?
Cremonese vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Mantova part of?
Cremonese vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 24% chance of winning, Mantova a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Mantova?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 0 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Mantova in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Mantova (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.84x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
24%
4.09
33%
3.03
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.17
1.27
Mantova xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.4 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.27 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 12W 13D 24L from 49 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 20L across 49 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.00 PPG, Mantova on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 5W 8D 11L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Mantova in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 12W 13D 24L in their last 49 games (1.00 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Mantova away?
Mantova's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.96 PPG; Mantova away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mantova in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Mantova runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 27 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Mantova?
From 3 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Mantova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2026, when Mantova 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Mantova?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Mantova 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 50% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 42% of games; Mantova in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Mantova tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →