Cremonese vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 8 as Cremonese welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.30 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Juve Stabia and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Juve Stabia trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Juve Stabia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.01 xG and Juve Stabia 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.823 / defence 1.086 | Juve Stabia attack 0.878 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 7 Cremonese games / 44 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 39%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Juve Stabia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 50% | Juve Stabia 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Cremonese 1.01 / Juve Stabia 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.823 / def 1.086 | Juve Stabia attack 0.878 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Juve Stabia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Cremonese vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia part of?
Cremonese vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 29% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cremonese and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
Record (4 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Juve Stabia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.82x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.19
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.22
1.21
Juve Stabia xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.21 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Cremonese have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 9W 13D 23L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia's form line: 14W 19D 12L from 45 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (4W 8D 10L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 9D 9L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 13D 23L in their last 45 games (0.89 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 14W 19D 12L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Juve Stabia away?
Juve Stabia's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.91 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Juve Stabia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 46% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 41% of games; Juve Stabia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 59% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 46% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.