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Poisson model rates Arezzo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Citta di Arezzo to face Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.51 xG and Benevento 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Arezzo games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Arezzo 47% | Draw 28% | Benevento 25%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 4.00. Arezzo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arezzo as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arezzo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Form data is not yet available for either side
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 47% | Draw 28% | Benevento 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Arezzo 1.51 / Benevento 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Arezzo (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Benevento xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Benevento kick off?
Arezzo vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Benevento part of?
Arezzo vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 47% chance of winning, Benevento a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arezzo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arezzo and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Benevento?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Arezzo and Benevento in?
• Form data is not yet available for either side
What do the betting odds say about Arezzo vs Benevento?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture