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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.76 xG and Juve Stabia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Juve Stabia attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 51% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 23%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 56%, Juve Stabia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.62 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights