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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Cremonese welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Juve Stabia — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Juve Stabia's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.90 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Cremonese trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Juve Stabia trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 62% versus Juve Stabia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 56% | Juve Stabia 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.76 xG and Juve Stabia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.243 / defence 1.105 | Juve Stabia attack 0.865 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.174. Data: 70 Cremonese games / 32 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 23%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Juve Stabia 4.35. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 70% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.

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