Cosenza 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cosenza at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Modena.

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Full Analysis

Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 3). Kick-off: Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cosenza have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cosenza's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cosenza are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Modena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Modena's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cosenza, 1.30 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Modena and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2023, ended Cosenza 0–2 Modena — a Modena win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Modena half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 36% | Modena 46%). Note also that Modena surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.60 xG and Modena 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.144 / defence 0.850 | Modena attack 0.984 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.035. Data: built from Cosenza's last 40 games and Modena's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cosenza 53% | Draw 28% | Modena 19%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 1.87 | Draw 3.60 | Modena 5.31. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cosenza's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 30% (last 10 home games) | Modena 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Cosenza 40 games, Modena 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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