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Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Cittadella 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.90 xG and Sassuolo 1.79 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 1.41 against Sassuolo attack 1.16 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cittadella 17% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 57%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 42%, Sassuolo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cittadella's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Sassuolo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.19 PPG, Sassuolo 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights