Cittadella 0-2 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Cittadella take on Cesena.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 13 as Cittadella welcome Cesena to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cittadella — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 0W 8D 2L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cesena's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cittadella's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Cittadella trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cesena trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 33% versus Cesena 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 33% | Cesena 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.96 xG and Cesena 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.688 / defence 0.800 | Cesena attack 0.819 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.032. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Cittadella games / 12 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 39% | Draw 39% | Cesena 23%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.56 | Draw 2.56 | Cesena 4.35. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cesena's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. This conflicts with form data: Cittadella 50% | Cesena 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 39% | Draw 39% | Cesena 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Cittadella 0.96 / Cesena 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.688 / def 0.800 | Cesena attack 0.819 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Cesena xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Cesena kick off?
Cittadella vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Cesena?
Cittadella 0 - 2 Cesena.
Where is Cittadella vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Cesena part of?
Cittadella vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 39% chance of winning, Cesena a 23% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Cittadella and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Cesena in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Cesena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Cittadella vs Cesena?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cittadella's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
39%
2.59
39%
2.58
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Cittadella xG
Total xG
1.64
0.68
Cesena xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 13.2 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.68 for Cesena, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cesena are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cittadella.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L).
On the road, Cesena have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.67 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 67%.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Cesena in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Cesena have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Cesena away?
Cittadella's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 0.80 PPG; Cesena away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cesena in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cittadella
1
Draws
1
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cesena?
From 2 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Cesena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Cesena 0-0 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Cesena 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Cittadella) and 60% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Cittadella's games and 80% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cittadella vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Cittadella's recent games and 60% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Cesena tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Cesena in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Cittadella 0-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.96 xG and Cesena 0.68 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cesena outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.69 / defence 0.80 against Cesena attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 39% | Draw 39% | Cesena 23%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Cesena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 33%, Cesena 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cesena's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cesena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.