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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cesena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Salernitana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena beat Salernitana 2-0 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.35 xG and Salernitana 0.77 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Salernitana attack 0.65 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 49% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 19%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 44%, Salernitana 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Salernitana's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cesena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights