🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Cesena 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Cesena 1-2 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.39 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Reggiana attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 42% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 23%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 41%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.39 PPG, Reggiana 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights