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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cesena and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena and Pisa finished level at 1-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.00 xG and Pisa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 28% | Draw 33% | Pisa 39%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 44%, Pisa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Pisa's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights