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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cesena and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 5, as Cesena and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.03 xG and Palermo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Palermo attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 26% | Draw 36% | Palermo 39%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 42%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.47 PPG, Palermo 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights