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Prediction vindicated as Cesena edge out Mantova 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena beat Mantova 3-2 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.38 xG and Mantova 0.65 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cesena beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mantova outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Mantova attack 0.71 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 53% | Draw 30% | Mantova 16%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 42%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (53 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (53 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.45 PPG, Mantova 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights