Cesena 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cesena face Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cesena welcome Cremonese to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off is Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cesena stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cesena's home record over their last 9 home games: 6W 2D 1L (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cesena are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cremonese's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cesena 1.40 PPG, Cremonese 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cesena in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 61% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 50% | Cremonese 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cesena surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Cremonese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.32 xG and Cremonese 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.216 / defence 1.225 | Cremonese attack 1.232 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.054. Cremonese have an above-average attack rating of 1.232, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Cesena's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Data: built from Cesena's last 18 games and Cremonese's last 56.
Result probabilities: Cesena 30% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 42%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.30 | Draw 3.61 | Cremonese 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.32 / 1.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cesena's last 9 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cesena 67% (last 9 home games) | Cremonese 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 30% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Cesena 1.32 / Cremonese 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.216 / def 1.225 | Cremonese attack 1.232 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Cremonese xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cesena vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Cesena vs Cremonese kick off?
Cesena vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Cremonese?
Cesena 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Cesena vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Cremonese part of?
Cesena vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 30% chance of winning, Cremonese a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cesena and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cesena vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.22) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cesena's last 18 games and Cremonese's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.61
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.91
1.59
Cremonese xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cesena vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cesena and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cesena and 1.59 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cesena come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 4D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.39 PPG, Cremonese on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cesena's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across their last 9 home games, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 9 away games (4W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cesena are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Cesena (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cesena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Cesena vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Cesena and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Cremonese away?
Cesena's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 2.22 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Cesena's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Cesena vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Cremonese?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Cesena have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cesena and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Cesena 2-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 67%, Cremonese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Cesena and 67% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cesena vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cesena and Cremonese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cesena's games and 56% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cesena and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cesena's matches and 67% of Cremonese's.
Do Cesena and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Cesena's recent matches and 78% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Cesena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cesena 0-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.32 xG and Cremonese 1.59 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cesena fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Cremonese attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 30% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 42%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 50%, Cremonese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.39 PPG, Cremonese 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 19
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →