Cesena vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Benevento travel to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to take on Cesena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Dino Manuzzi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cesena 1.20 PPG, Benevento 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cesena, 1 for Benevento and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cesena trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Benevento trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cesena 80% and Benevento 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cesena 40% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.36 xG and Benevento 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.040 / defence 1.073 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Cesena games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 40% | Draw 31% | Benevento 29%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cesena 90% | Benevento 0%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 40% | Draw 31% | Benevento 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Cesena 1.36 / Benevento 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.040 / def 1.073 | Benevento attack 0.845 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Cesena (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Benevento xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Benevento kick off?
Cesena vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
Where is Cesena vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Benevento part of?
Cesena vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cesena and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Cesena and Benevento in?
Cesena (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cesena's attack at 1.04x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
40%
2.47
31%
3.26
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.48
1.12
Benevento xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cesena and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Cesena and 1.12 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cesena's recent record stands at 2W 6D 2L from 10 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.20 PPG, Benevento on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benevento's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Benevento away?
Cesena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.50 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cesena or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cesena and Benevento runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Cesena
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Benevento?
From 1 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Benevento 2-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 100%, Benevento 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cesena) and 25% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Cesena's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cesena vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cesena's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Benevento tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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