Cesena vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Benevento travel to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to take on Cesena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Dino Manuzzi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cesena 0.90 PPG, Benevento 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Cesena trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Benevento trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cesena 100% and Benevento 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 50% | Benevento 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.50 xG and Benevento 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.985 / defence 1.172 | Benevento attack 0.702 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Cesena games / 4 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 50% | Draw 26% | Benevento 24%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 4.17. Cesena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cesena 90% | Benevento 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 50% | Draw 26% | Benevento 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Cesena 1.50 / Benevento 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.985 / def 1.172 | Benevento attack 0.702 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Cesena (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Benevento xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Benevento kick off?
Cesena vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
Where is Cesena vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Benevento part of?
Cesena vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 50% chance of winning, Benevento a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cesena and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cesena and Benevento in?
Cesena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.98x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.84
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.46
0.96
Benevento xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cesena and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cesena and 0.96 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cesena's recent record stands at 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cesena by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Benevento in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cesena at 100%, Benevento at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cesena) and 50% (Benevento).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Cesena's games and 75% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cesena's recent games and 50% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Benevento tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.