Cesena 1-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cesena at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cesena vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Bari travel to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to take on Cesena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cesena have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Dino Manuzzi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Cesena are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cesena have won 0, Bari 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cesena in-play and half-time data (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Bari in-play and half-time data (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 57% versus Bari 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cesena 41% | Bari 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.51 xG and Bari 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.989 / defence 1.020 | Bari attack 0.694 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.041. Data: 58 Cesena games / 58 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 55% | Draw 27% | Bari 18%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Bari 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cesena (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Bari lead the H2H ledger, but Cesena carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Cesena 70% | Bari 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 55% | Draw 27% | Bari 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Cesena 1.51 / Bari 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.989 / def 1.020 | Bari attack 0.694 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Cesena (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Bari xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Bari kick off?
Cesena vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Bari?
Cesena 1 - 2 Bari.
Where is Cesena vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Bari part of?
Cesena vs Bari is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 55% chance of winning, Bari a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cesena and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Bari?
Record (3 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 2W.
What form are Cesena and Bari in?
Cesena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Bari (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.99x the league average against Bari's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.74
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.25
0.74
Bari xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
4%
25.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cesena and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cesena and 0.74 for Bari, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Bari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Cesena have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 23W 15D 20L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 13W 26D 19L from 58 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.45 PPG, Bari on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cesena have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 12D 12L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cesena are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.98 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Bari in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 26D 19L in their last 58 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Bari away?
Cesena's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.59 PPG; Bari away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bari have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cesena's record when hosting Bari specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cesena
1
Draws
3
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Bari have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Cesena 1-2 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 59%, Bari 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cesena) and 37% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Cesena's recent matches and 44% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cesena vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cesena's recent games and 37% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Bari tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Cesena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Cesena 1-2 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.51 xG and Bari 0.74 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bari outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Bari attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 55% | Draw 27% | Bari 18%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 41%, Bari 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.45 PPG, Bari 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.