Cesena 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Cesena take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Bari travel to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi to take on Cesena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cesena have posted 5W 3D 2L at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cesena are significantly better at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.
Bari — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cesena 1.10 PPG, Bari 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cesena have won 0, Bari 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cesena in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Bari in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 54% versus Bari 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cesena 46% | Bari 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 0.92 xG and Bari 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.951 / defence 1.048 | Bari attack 0.775 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.083. Bari's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 22 Cesena games / 60 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 32% | Draw 39% | Bari 30%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Bari 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 50% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 32% | Draw 39% | Bari 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Cesena 0.92 / Bari 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.951 / def 1.048 | Bari attack 0.775 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bari xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Bari kick off?
Cesena vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Bari?
Cesena 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Cesena vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Bari part of?
Cesena vs Bari is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 32% chance of winning, Bari a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cesena and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 0 | Bari 1W.
What form are Cesena and Bari in?
Cesena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Bari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bari's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
39%
2.58
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cesena xG
Total xG
1.80
0.88
Bari xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.6 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Cesena and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cesena and 0.88 for Bari, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Cesena have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 8W 5D 9L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 6W 11D 5L from 22 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.32 PPG, Bari on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cesena have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cesena are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.09 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Bari in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Bari in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Bari have gone 6W 11D 5L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Bari away?
Cesena's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.80 PPG; Bari away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Cesena or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bari in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bari have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cesena's record when hosting Bari specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cesena
1
Draws
3
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Bari have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Cesena 1-2 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 50%, Bari 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Cesena and 20% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bari in 50%; Bari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cesena's recent matches and 30% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cesena vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cesena's recent games and 20% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Bari tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bari in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 23, as Cesena and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 0.92 xG and Bari 0.88 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Bari attack 0.78 / defence 0.79, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 32% | Draw 39% | Bari 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 46%, Bari 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.32 PPG, Bari 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.