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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Catanzaro and Bari share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 32, as Catanzaro and Bari drew 3-3 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.37 xG and Bari 0.79 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Catanzaro beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against Bari attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 49% | Draw 31% | Bari 20%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 54%, Bari 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.54 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights