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Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Venezia 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Venezia 3-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.27 xG and Venezia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Venezia attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 42% | Draw 37% | Venezia 21%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Venezia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Venezia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.22 PPG, Venezia 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights