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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 25 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Current Form

Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Venezia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Venezia's form when playing away from home: 0W 9D 1L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Trading

Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Venezia 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.27 xG and Venezia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.078 / defence 0.949 | Venezia attack 0.784 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.134. Data: 46 Carrarese games / 8 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 37% | Venezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.38 | Draw 2.70 | Venezia 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 50% | Venezia 60%.

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