Carrarese 3-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 25 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Venezia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 0W 9D 1L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Venezia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.27 xG and Venezia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.078 / defence 0.949 | Venezia attack 0.784 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.134. Data: 46 Carrarese games / 8 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 37% | Venezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.38 | Draw 2.70 | Venezia 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 50% | Venezia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 37% | Venezia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Carrarese 1.27 / Venezia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.078 / def 0.949 | Venezia attack 0.784 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Venezia xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Venezia kick off?
Carrarese vs Venezia kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Venezia?
Carrarese 3 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Carrarese vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Venezia part of?
Carrarese vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 42% chance of winning, Venezia a 21% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Carrarese and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Venezia in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Venezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Carrarese's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.78x) against Carrarese's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
42%
2.36
37%
2.72
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.11
0.84
Venezia xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
17.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.84 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 17D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.91 PPG from 46 outings (8W 18D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Carrarese against 0.91 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Carrarese's home form reads 11W 7D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.57 points per game from 23 outings (0W 13D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.93 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Venezia in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 13W 17D 16L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Venezia have gone 8W 18D 20L in their last 46 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Venezia away?
Carrarese's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.74 PPG; Venezia away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Venezia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Venezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Venezia 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 35%, Venezia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Carrarese) and 48% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 30% of games; Venezia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Carrarese's recent matches and 56% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Carrarese's recent games and 48% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Venezia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Venezia 3-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.27 xG and Venezia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Venezia attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 42% | Draw 37% | Venezia 21%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Venezia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.22 PPG, Venezia 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.