Carrarese vs Sudtirol Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Carrarese at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Carrarese face Sudtirol.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Carrarese host Sudtirol at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Carrarese — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Carrarese's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Sudtirol have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sudtirol away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carrarese at 1.00 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Sudtirol and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Feb 2026, ended Carrarese 0–0 Sudtirol — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Carrarese in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 47% versus Sudtirol 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 49% | Sudtirol 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.36 xG and Sudtirol 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.835 / defence 0.967 | Sudtirol attack 0.954 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Sudtirol's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Carrarese's projected output up. Data: built from Carrarese's last 49 games and Sudtirol's last 49.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 40% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 30%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.49 | Draw 3.31 | Sudtirol 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carrarese 50% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 60% (last 10 away games).

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