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Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Sampdoria 2-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.30 xG and Sampdoria 0.80 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 47% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 21%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sampdoria's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.15 PPG, Sampdoria 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights