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Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 13, as Carrarese and Reggiana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.97 xG and Reggiana 1.44 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Reggiana attack 1.16 / defence 1.38, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 48% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 26%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Reggiana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Reggiana's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.20 PPG, Reggiana 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights