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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Carrarese and Pescara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese and Pescara finished level at 2-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.88 xG and Pescara 1.04 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Pescara attack 1.06 / defence 1.33, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 55% | Draw 26% | Pescara 19%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 47%, Pescara 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Pescara's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.24 PPG, Pescara 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights