🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese and Padova finished level at 0-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.79 xG and Padova 0.91 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Padova landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Padova attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 55% | Draw 30% | Padova 16%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 0%, Padova 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Carrarese arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Carrarese managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Padova managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights