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Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Cosenza 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.01 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.79 / defence 0.72 against Cosenza attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 35% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 29%, Cosenza 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cosenza's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.18 PPG, Cosenza 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights