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Shock result as Carrarese defy the odds to beat Modena 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.19 xG and Modena 1.33 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Modena attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 32% | Draw 29% | Modena 39%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 43%, Modena 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Modena's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.17 PPG, Modena 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights