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Dominant Carrarese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.25 xG and Juve Stabia 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Juve Stabia attack 1.18 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 30% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 37%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 43%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.18 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights