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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Carrarese have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Juve Stabia (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Juve Stabia are 0.60 PPG clear of Carrarese in recent Serie B fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Carrarese have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Carrarese 0W, Juve Stabia 1W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 43% | Juve Stabia 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.25 xG and Juve Stabia 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.935 / defence 1.068 | Juve Stabia attack 1.181 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.117. Data: 44 Carrarese games / 44 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 30% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 37%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Juve Stabia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 60% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.

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