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Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Carrarese 0-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.45 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against Frosinone attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 38% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 29%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Frosinone 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Frosinone's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.23 PPG, Frosinone 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights