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Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Carrarese 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Carrarese 0-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.43 xG and Frosinone 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against Frosinone attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 44% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 25%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 43%, Frosinone 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Frosinone's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.14 PPG, Frosinone 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights