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Dominant Carrarese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Empoli 3-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.23 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Empoli 24%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Empoli's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.22 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights