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Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 37, as Carrarese and Cesena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.62 xG and Cesena 0.75 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Cesena attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 56% | Draw 29% | Cesena 15%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 47%, Cesena 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cesena's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.19 PPG, Cesena 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights