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Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cesena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Cesena 2-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.12 xG and Cesena 0.57 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.79 / defence 0.67 against Cesena attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 47% | Draw 36% | Cesena 17%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 26%, Cesena 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cesena's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.26 PPG, Cesena 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights