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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Carrarese and Catanzaro share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 28, as Carrarese and Catanzaro drew 3-3 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.17 xG and Catanzaro 0.99 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Catanzaro outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against Catanzaro attack 1.15 / defence 1.01, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 39% | Draw 32% | Catanzaro 30%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Catanzaro 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Catanzaro's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.17 PPG, Catanzaro 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights