Carrarese 0-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Carrarese welcome Benevento to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Benevento — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 0.60 PPG, Benevento 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Carrarese trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Benevento trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Carrarese 50% and Benevento 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 25% | Benevento 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.26 xG and Benevento 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.830 / defence 1.028 | Benevento attack 0.706 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.156. Data: 42 Carrarese games / 4 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Benevento 4.00. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 40% | Benevento 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Carrarese 1.26 / Benevento 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.830 / def 1.028 | Benevento attack 0.706 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Benevento xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Benevento kick off?
Carrarese vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Benevento?
Carrarese 0 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Carrarese vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Benevento part of?
Carrarese vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 46% chance of winning, Benevento a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Carrarese and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Benevento in?
Carrarese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.83) and Benevento's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.41
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.10
0.84
Benevento xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.84 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carrarese heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Benevento in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Benevento runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Benevento?
From 1 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 50%, Benevento 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Carrarese) and 50% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Carrarese have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Carrarese's games and 75% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carrarese vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Carrarese's recent games and 50% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Benevento tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Benevento in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benevento defy the odds to beat Carrarese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Carrarese 0-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.26 xG and Benevento 0.84 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Benevento attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 25%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Benevento win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 25%, Benevento 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benevento's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Benevento conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.