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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brescia and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 21, as Brescia and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.96 xG and Sampdoria 1.68 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.21 / defence 1.37 against Sampdoria attack 1.19 / defence 1.35, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brescia 43% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 32%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Sampdoria 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brescia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brescia 1.25 PPG, Sampdoria 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights