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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Brescia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Brescia 1-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.49 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Pisa attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brescia 21% | Draw 30% | Pisa 49%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 37%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brescia's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Pisa's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brescia 1.17 PPG, Pisa 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights