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Poisson model favours Pisa (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brescia face Pisa.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Brescia welcome Pisa to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 0W 7D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pisa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Pisa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Pisa's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brescia, 3 for Pisa and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Brescia trading profile (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Pisa trading profile (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 56% versus Pisa 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 37% | Pisa 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.868 / defence 1.127 | Pisa attack 1.119 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.183. Data: 71 Brescia games / 71 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Brescia 21% | Draw 30% | Pisa 49%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.04. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 70% | Pisa 40%.

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